Hong Kong’s economic growth in the third quarter of this year is poised to exceed market expectations, driven by faster export growth and robust domestic demand, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said in his Sunday blog.
The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government will release advance estimates of the city’s gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2026 on Tuesday.
“Supported by faster export growth and robust domestic demand, the third quarter’s year-on-year economic growth will exceed market expectations at an accelerating pace compared to the second quarter, registering positive growth for the 15th consecutive quarters,” Chan said.
“The combined year-on-year increase in real GDP for the first three quarters of this year will also be the largest in five years. With the economy maintaining its positive momentum, the full-year economic growth forecast is expected to be revised upwards again.”
Technological innovation is a key driving force for the city’s export growth. “The global investment boom in artificial intelligence continues, driving strong demand for high-end electronic components and AI-related products. The deep integration and strong competitiveness of related supply chains within Asia have also benefited Hong Kong,” the finance chief said.
The SAR’s merchandise exports in September surged 64.9 percent year-on-year -- the 20th consecutive month of double-digit growth, with the monthly increase reaching a new high in over 40 years.
ALSO READ: HKTDC raises HK export growth forecast to 42-47% in 2026
On the investment front, private investment expenditure has recorded double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters, and the growth momentum continued in the third quarter of this year, reflecting businesses’ confidence in the outlook.
Service exports also benefited from continued growth in inbound tourism to Hong Kong, robust cross-boundary transport, and active financial markets. Upcoming retail and revenue figures of the catering industry are also expected to show continued moderate growth.
In the employment market, the economy is growing steadily, and workers’ real incomes are rising. “As external instability and uncertainty persist due to geopolitical and economic situations and the monetary policy directions of major central banks, we will continue to closely monitor market conditions,” Chan said.
He said the administration must create favorable conditions to consolidate the economic growth momentum, as financial services innovation can provide small-and-medium enterprises in Hong Kong more flexible financing at lower costs that can better unlock market potential.
The Commercial Data Interchange launched by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority four years ago allows banks to quickly and securely access business data from companies with their authorization and consent. As of September this year, it had facilitated over 125,000 loan applications, totaling over HK$100 billion ($12.8 billion) in credit. Research indicates that banks that more actively utilize the CDI can offer loans to SMEs at an average interest rate approximately 36 basis points lower.
The CargoX Pilot Program, launched by the HKMA in May this year, has already attracted 21 participating banks. The HKMA has partnered with the Shanghai Municipal Data Bureau to launch a trade finance project that allows the first five pilot banks to access trade and customs declaration data from the Yangtze River Delta region. By early October, 10 trade finance loans totaling HK$180 million had been approved. Last month, Hong Kong further strengthened its cross-border trade data cooperation with the PAA Digital Trade Alliance whose members cover 15 economies, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations market, further expanding the data interconnection network.
Unleashing greater growth potential through continuous innovation in technology and finance is the core theme of this week's two major financial events.
Themed “Fintech Hub Connecting the World, Building the Future”, the five-day “Hong Kong Fintech Week x StartmeupHK 2026” is expected to attract over 45,000 online and offline participants from more than 120 economies. During the event, the government and several financial regulatory bodies will announce a series of new measures and cooperation plans focusing on areas such as artificial intelligence applications and governance, tokenization applications, and payment interconnection.
ALSO READ: HK FinTech Week set to draw more than 45,000 participants
The fifth edition of the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit organized by the HKMA will bring together some 280 international financial leaders, including about 120 group chairmen and CEOs of top global financial institutions. Themed “Embracing Innovation and Opening New Horizons”, this year’s summit provides an international exchange platform for global financial decision makers, allowing them to examine the latest market changes from different perspectives and jointly explore new opportunities for cooperation and development.
