The return of overseas orders is driving strong growth in the Greater Bay Area’s foreign trade exports, which experts said is a valuable window of opportunity for the region’s manufacturing sector to shift from scale-driven expansion to growth powered by supply-chain resilience.

In the face of long-term geopolitical risks, it remains essential to strengthen the core advantages of precision manufacturing and boost integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, they said.

Due to rising land and labor costs, shrinking tariff advantages, and an unstable energy supply in overseas bases, manufacturing companies that previously shifted production capacity to Southeast Asia and South America are now bringing orders back to their factories in the Greater Bay Area.

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In particular, the Greater Bay Area’s robust supply chain has played a crucial role in bringing back orders that require efficiency and stability, such as those in the consumer electronics and home appliance industries. Other traditional industries like apparel and toy manufacturing have also benefited.

Propelled by this trend, Guangdong province’s foreign trade exports reached 3.22 trillion yuan ($476 billion) in the first half of 2026, an increase of 11.6 percent year-over-year. In June, the province’s total imports and exports reached 1.05 trillion yuan, marking the first time the monthly total exceeded the 1 trillion yuan threshold.

Wing Chu, deputy director of research at the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, said that over the past two to three years, in response to trade protectionist policies led by the United States, some companies have adopted a “China+1” strategy — that is, establishing at least one alternative production or procurement base in a developing country outside of China — to diversify risks.

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Under Washington’s latest tariff policies, the tariff costs on many products exported from Vietnam and some other Southeast Asian countries are now not much different from those on Chinese products. The unparalleled competitiveness of the Chinese mainland’s manufacturing support — such as its supply chain, infrastructure, and energy supply — further drives the return of orders with higher product quality requirements.

Highlighting the significance of US-China relations for manufacturers’ global strategies, Chu predicts that if the leaders of the two countries meet again in September as expected and achieve further cooperation, it could bring more orders back to China.

Yang Yongcong, deputy director of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Research Institute at the Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, said that although it may not necessarily be sustainable in the long term, the return of export orders in recent months is crucial for maintaining stable macroeconomic growth, as exports are one of the three pillars of GDP growth.

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He added that the growth in exports can boost capacity utilization for enterprises in the Greater Bay Area, sustain a stable outlook for future economic development, and create greater room for the transition from old to new growth momentum.

Chu said he believes that in the long run, as the Greater Bay Area’s production costs continue to rise and other overseas production hubs gradually mature, it will remain the norm for companies to diversify their operations across borders and take advantage of the distinct export conditions in different regions.

He cautioned that relying solely on low prices to capture market share could easily trigger protectionism, and called on companies to accelerate their upgrading amid the wave of global supply chain restructuring to build core competitiveness.

To cope with future risks, Yang suggested that enterprises in the Greater Bay Area should enhance their ability to respond to complex situations and strengthen their level of international alignment, thereby facilitating compliant operations in overseas markets.

He added that, due to differences in regulatory rules and certification systems, it remains difficult for manufacturers to switch between domestic and international markets. The scholar hopes that national authorities can further integrate domestic and foreign trade to enable more flexible use of production capacity.

Contact the writer at bingcun@chinadailyhk.com