Hong Kong’s merchandise experts are expected to remain positive in 2026, with the Hong Kong Trade Development Council on Thursday forecasting strong growth of 8 to 9 percent underpinned by robust global demand for artificial‑intelligence‑related electronic products.

The upward trend will carry into next year, despite the legacy of a high base from early 2025’s spike in frontloaded shipments, a practice adopted in anticipation of the widely expected tariffs imposed by the United States.

According to the HKTDC Export Confidence Index for the 4th quarter, more than half of surveyed exporters expect that rising demand for AI and new-technology consumer electronics will be the most important engine of business expansion in 2026.

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With electronics making up more than 70 percent of Hong Kong’s total shipments, the sector has been a prime beneficiary of the AI boom. Exports of AI-related devices leapt 22 percent in the first 10 months this year.

Considering the ongoing push for digital transformation, the HKTDC said the appetite for associated electronic products will, inevitably, be a decisive element in the city’s future exports performance.

“While 2025 proved to be a year of heightened uncertainty, 2026 should be a year of greater clarity on global trade,” said Irina Fan Yuen-yee, director of HKTDC Research. She added that if not for the frontloading of shipments earlier this year, next year’s exports growth rate could reach double digits.

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With the Chinese mainland and the US having come to a trade agreement in November, around four months after many other economies had struck their own deals with the Trump administration, “US tariffs are no longer among Hong Kong exporters’ three biggest concerns for next year,” Fan said.

She cautioned, however, that uncertainties remain. “As US imports from different countries are subject to different levels of tariffs, business leaders around the world will be looking to reorganize their activities to optimize any cost advantages,” Fan said.

Kenneth Lee, head of the special project and business advisory section at HKTDC Research, said, “When it comes to expansion plans over the next two years, Asia remains very much the focus.” For over 40 percent of surveyed exporters, the Chinese mainland is the highest priority market, followed by the rest of Asia, he added.

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Hong Kong’s exports sector delivered a stronger-than-expected performance this year, with shipments in the first 10 months rising 13.8 percent year-on-year, well above the HKTDC’s earlier forecast for 7 to 9 percent. Analysts expect the city’s total exports to grow about 13 percent for the year as a whole.

Besides the frontloading of orders prompted by concerns over US tariffs, and rising demand for AI‑enabled electronic devices, exports of toy and games also staged a strong comeback, surging over 30 percent in the first 10 months of 2025 after plunging almost 22 percent last year, according to the HKTDC.

Performance across Hong Kong’s major export destinations has been mixed. Shipments to the Chinese mainland and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations both recorded double‑digit gains in the first 10 months. Over the same period, exports to the US edged up a modest 3.1 percent, while those to the European Union slipped 2.9 percent.

Contact the writer at irisli@chinadailyhk.com