As China enters the critical phase of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), the external environment is undergoing profound and complex changes, marked by a coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks, as well as increasing uncertainties and unforeseeable factors. Despite these challenges, China’s economic fundamentals remain sound, with multiple strengths, strong resilience, and vast potential. The underlying conditions and long-term positive trajectory that support sustained growth have not changed. The institutional strengths of socialism with Chinese characteristics, the advantage of a supersized domestic market, a complete industrial system, and abundant human resources have become even more prominent.
The communique of the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) begins by affirming the work of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee since the third plenary session. Notably, it highlights the importance of work related to Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, underlining the strategic significance of these regions in the overall governance and development agenda of the Party and the nation.
In response to the communique, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu promptly shared his reflections on social media. He noted that the 15th Five-Year Plan period will be a crucial stage for the country to comprehensively advance the building of a great country and the great cause of national rejuvenation through Chinese modernization. It also marks a new stage in the implementation of the “one country, two systems” framework and a pivotal period for Hong Kong to transition from good governance to true prosperity.
Amid complex and evolving global dynamics, Hong Kong is expected to align with the national development strategy by leveraging its unique advantages and fully engaging with the 15th Five-Year Plan, positioning the city to seize major opportunities from national development and contribute significantly to the country’s modernization.
The plenary session set out a series of guiding principles for the 15th Five-Year Plan period: upholding the Party’s overall leadership, putting the people first, pursuing high-quality development, deepening reform in all respects, balancing an effective market with a proactive government, and coordinating development with security. These six principles not only reflect the CPC’s strategic resolve and vision but also demonstrate a deepening understanding of development patterns and an acute awareness of the shifting domestic and international landscapes.
The emphasis on expanding two-way investment cooperation suggests that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the central government will vigorously support Chinese enterprises in “going global” while also attracting foreign capital into the Chinese market
Meanwhile, the session laid out the main goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan period: achieving notable progress in high-quality development, making significant strides toward greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology, making new breakthroughs in comprehensively deepening reforms, improving social civility, raising the quality of life, delivering new and substantial progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthening national security. On this foundation, the session envisions that by 2035, China will have significantly increased its economic, scientific, and military strength, as well as its overall national power and international influence. The country aims to reach the level of a moderately developed economy in terms of per capita GDP, with the people enjoying more prosperous and fulfilling lives and basically achieving socialist modernization.
The session also addressed the need to tackle challenges and drive the transformation of growth drivers. “Real economy” and “new quality productive forces” emerged as central themes in shaping the future economy. As the world’s second-largest economy, China recognizes that its own cornerstone lies in the real economy. The emphasis on intelligent, green, and integrated industrial transformation reflects a comprehensive and forward-looking approach to securing both growth and national security.
The focus on the real economy and new quality productive forces directly points to one of the most critical undertakings of the 15th Five-Year Plan: the transformation of old and new growth drivers. Should emerging industries achieve significant breakthroughs and traditional sectors undergo intelligent upgrades by the end of the plan period, China’s industrial structure will be fundamentally reshaped. This will provide a solid foundation for the 16th Five-Year Plan (2031-35) and propel the nation toward its 2035 goals.
The session reaffirmed China’s unwavering commitment to deepening reform and expanding high-level opening-up. In discussing the development of a robust domestic market and the acceleration of a new development paradigm, the communique emphasized the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand. It advocated fostering new demand through innovative supply, promoting positive interaction between consumption and investment, and strengthening the endogenous driving forces of domestic circulation.
This shift toward demand-side reform reflects a strategic recalibration based on a clear understanding of China’s development stage, signaling the emergence of new business models and consumption scenarios.
To strengthen the high-standard socialist market economy, the session called for giving full play to the guiding role of economic system reform and accelerating the development of market-based mechanisms for factor allocation. This indicates that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will step up efforts to improve its international, market-oriented, and law-based business environment. Notable progress is expected in areas such as intellectual property protection, national treatment for foreign investment, and promoting fair competition among all types of market entities.
Furthermore, the session stressed the importance of expanding high-level opening-up and fostering a new paradigm of mutually beneficial cooperation. It called for proactive engagement in autonomous opening-up, driving innovation in trade, expanding space for two-way investment cooperation, and promoting the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative.
The emphasis on expanding two-way investment cooperation suggests that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the central government will vigorously support Chinese enterprises in “going global” while also attracting foreign capital into the Chinese market. “Large inflows and outflows” and “mutual connectivity” will become the new norm. Countries taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative, in particular, are expected to become focal points for Chinese outbound investment, ushering in a new era of openness and cooperation for China.
The author is vice-chairman of the Committee on Liaison with Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Overseas Chinese of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and chairman of the Hong Kong New Era Development Thinktank.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
