On Sept 3, China held a grand military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of victory in the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression (1931-45) and the World Anti-Fascist War. The parade featured a dazzling display of high-tech, cutting-edge weaponry never shown before.
Even more astonishing was China’s unveiling of its philosophy and approach to future warfare, including systematization, integration, intelligence, precision, informationization, and unmanned warfare. In some of the weaponry on parade, such as hypersonic missiles and laser weapons, China is arguably a global leader. Like many other countries, China has been reticent about its military capabilities and weapons development. The West tends to believe that China still lags significantly behind the United States in military power. Consequently, some American strategic experts and military brass have periodically made military threats against China and talked about “defending” Taiwan.
The US and its allies have intensified their attempts at military containment of China in recent years, aiming to transform the first island chain into a barrier to “lock up” the Chinese navy. In addition to deploying more weapons and equipment in Asia-Pacific, the US has also strengthened its military alliances in the region. Washington has even attempted to “Asianize” NATO. Faced with increasingly complex and grave security threats, China needed to showcase its powerful, sophisticated, cutting-edge weaponry to prevent the US from making strategic miscalculations that could provoke, God forbid, a disastrous military conflict.
The Sept 3 military parade had a profound impact and psychological reverberations on Washington. Many American experts believe that China and the US are now on a par in military strength, with some having suggested that China’s military might be superior.
Regardless of how American experts assess China’s military prowess, I personally think that they no longer believe the US has the ability to win a war against China. Since the end of World War II, despite its aggressive expansion of military power, the US has never engaged in war with another great military power. It has either bullied weaker nations or forced them to fight proxy wars on its behalf. In truth, the US lacks practical combat experience in fighting a mighty military power, and it is even less sure of victory.
Many believe that the US is utterly incapable of militarily defeating China. I believe this assessment has become a consensus in the international community following the Sept 3 parade. This consensus will have a profound and significant impact on the international landscape, particularly China-US relations. As we all know, the pillars of US global hegemony are the US dollar as a worldwide currency, US Treasurys, its military allies, and its military might, the last being the most crucial. If US military hegemony diminishes, the other pillars will also struggle to remain standing, and US global hegemony will become a thing of the past.
When countries around the world acknowledge that China has risen to become a military superpower, the international landscape will undergo subtle but profound changes.
The Sept 3 military parade had a profound impact and psychological reverberations on Washington. Many American experts believe that China and the US are now on a par in military strength, with some having suggested that China’s military might be superior
First, Washington’s allies will be increasingly unwilling to side with the US and wage a war on China. The so-called “eastward expansion” of NATO into the Asia-Pacific region is nothing but a pipe dream. Faced with China’s formidable military might, US allies, whether in Europe or Asia, are generally unwilling to risk catastrophic consequences by waging a war on China. Even if they strengthen their own military capabilities, they clearly know they are still far from a match for China.
Second, separatists in Taiwan have always counted on the US in their pursuit of “Taiwan independence”, unquestioningly believing that the US would protect them with military action because of the island’s strategic value to the US. Of course, the current administration’s actions, especially the US’ betrayal of Ukraine, have disheartened more and more Taiwan people, making them even less trusting of US security guarantees. Following the Sept 3 military parade, more Taiwan people are likely to distrust US security promises. Increasingly, they will oppose the Lai Ching-te administration spending large amounts of public funds on inferior and useless US weapons. Negative propaganda and malicious provocations directed at the Chinese mainland by Taiwan separatists will increasingly be met with resistance from the Taiwan people. The mainland’s formidable military arsenal and the US’ unreliability will fuel growing resentment against pro-independence forces in Taiwan, making their situation increasingly difficult.
Third, facing China, an invincible superpower, the US will feel that the strategic value of its allies is decreasing. In the past, the US sought to co-opt allies to join the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to project an image of “righteousness” and “support from allies”. Since America’s allies are increasingly reluctant to antagonize China, the US has less need to provide benefits or public goods to maintain their support and dependence. In fact, the current administration has launched a tariff war against allies and engaged in plundering them. As the strategic value of these allies continues to decline, US economic coercion against them will only intensify, tensions will grow, and US influence over its allies will steadily decline. The network of alliances that Washington has boasted about will become less reliable.
All of this suggests that the US’ global hegemony will decline. The dollar’s hegemony is already being eroded in the face of US’ heavy debt burden. The gradual decline of US military hegemony will further undermine the dollar’s credibility, leading to increasing instability in the US virtual economy and even its entire economic system. US unilateralism, protectionism, bullying, irresponsibility, and violations of international law will further impair its economy, a situation exacerbated by the substantial increase in US defense spending to counter China.
The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
