Sun Tzu said, “the greatest victory is that which requires no battle”. Nevertheless, as I mentioned in my article “US-China trade war: Have the costs been counted?” (China Daily HK Edition, July 9, 2018), the Trump administration chose the opposite path, “war”, not as in an armed conflict, but as in a trade war. 

Many people expected that with Joe Biden in charge, things would be substantially different, but we saw in Alaska that things are actually the same. To the US, China is a threat and needs to be undermined in every possible way, regardless of who is in charge.

In other words, the US will not accept that the world is changing and will keep imposing sanctions and escalate the financial war against China. 

And this is so because China will overtake the US as the world’s largest economy much sooner than expected, which is worrying to many countries, especially in the West and more particularly to the US.

The US adopted a tough stance toward China in the Alaska talks between top US diplomats and high-level Chinese representatives, accusing China, among other things, of  “threatening the rules-based order that maintains global stability” with its policies on Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang.

The thing is, has China so far shown any imperialistic tilt or shown the rest of the world that it can be a threat of any kind? No, it has not. As I recently said, unlike other countries such as the US, China has not shown in recent decades any kind of tilt toward imperialism, which means that China must not be seen as an enemy and a threat, but as a friend. Given that this will be Asia’s and China’s century, it would be in everybody’s interest to reach constructive solutions and agreements with China rather than always trying to undermine it.

Unfortunately, my views are not shared by most Western governments: We are seeing some trying to turn China into a pariah by citing the “threats” posed by China as well as the “mistakes” made by China.

The US is using a Cold War mentality adapted to the 21st century (and to China, instead of the USSR), but the broad idea remains the same. 

If the West decides to turn its back on Hong Kong, the special administrative region will find more opportunities in its motherland: in this sense, China, through the 14th Five-Year Plan

According to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s remarks in Alaska, one of the reasons China is “threatening global stability” is its policies on Hong Kong. Which brings us, once again, to see how Hong Kong is being used as a pawn in this trade/new Cold War, thus unfairly affecting the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

This comes just a few days after foreign ministers in the G7 group of nations issued a statement criticizing the recent moves by Beijing, i.e., the plans to improve Hong Kong’s electoral system to ensure that only patriots should administer the special administrative region.

As I explained in my previous article, in that statement, the G7 foreign ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States and the High Representative of the European Union expressed their “grave concerns at the Chinese authorities’ decision fundamentally to erode democratic elements of the electoral system in Hong Kong”. They also asserted that Beijing’s move “strongly indicates that the authorities in mainland China are determined to eliminate dissenting voices and opinions in Hong Kong”, undermining the “one country, two systems” principle.

The rationale behind Blinken’s remarks in Alaska and the G7 report are almost the same: China is “oppressing” Hong Kong and preventing Hongkongers from exercising their human rights, which is false, since Hong Kong is one of the freest economies and societies in the whole world.

How will this all affect Hong Kong? Hong Kong may have been removed from the Heritage Foundation Index, Hong Kong may have been cited in the G7 Report and in Blinken’s statement in Alaska… However, despite all these attempts to undermine the special administrative region, Hong Kong will remain one of the world’s most important financial hubs and one of the best places to live in. If the West decides to turn its back on Hong Kong, the special administrative region will find more opportunities in its motherland: in this sense, China, through the “Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035” — also known as the 14th Five-Year Plan —, has once again recognized Hong Kong’s potential on the national level.

Hong Kong’s involvement in projects like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the digital yuan tests shows us that Beijing still prizes the special administrative region and considers it to be very valuable. 

Certainly, it will benefit tremendously from participating in the Bay Area’s development, which brings together the two special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macao plus nine municipalities in Guangdong province. The Bay Area, dubbed by the media as “China’s answer to Silicon Valley”, has a combined population of over 69 million and a GDP of around US$1.5 trillion (comparable to that of the Tokyo Bay Area and the New York Metropolitan Area).

Thanks to the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong can still look forward to a bright future as one of the world’s most important financial hubs. But this can be assured only when Hong Kong remains part of China and is governed by people loyal to their own country. And this is independent of the Heritage Index Foundation, the G7 and the Alaska talks.

We can take assurance from the fact that Hong Kong was ranked earlier this month as one of the top four international financial centers in the world, according to the 29th Global Financial Index.

Let’s make no mistake: The West has no genuine concern about the well-being of Hong Kong’s citizens. If they had any concern, they would have prompted the UK to introduce some kind of democratic reform in the 157 years that the Brits spent in Hong Kong, but no one did so. No one in the West did so because no one there cares about whether Hong Kong’s electoral system is reformed or not, or about any other of Hong Kong’s issues. 

What they really care about is undermining China’s position and trying to make it a pariah. But, as the wise Sun Tzu stated, “who wishes to fight must first count the cost”, and I doubt the West has actually counted the costs and considered all the possible outcomes of confronting China in such a harsh way.

We are living in challenging times worldwide, which call for cooperation rather than confrontation. A friendly attitude toward China would be much more beneficial for the US and the EU than a hostile one, since friends can find ways to help each other, whereas rivals can do little else but compete with each other. When it comes to Hong Kong, the SAR can still look forward to a very bright future as one of the world’s most important financial hubs, a place where its citizens can consider themselves among the freest (and, in many senses, luckiest) in the whole world.

The author works as a FinTech Advisor and Researcher. He holds an MBA and a doctorate in Hong Kong real estate law and economics. He has worked as a business analyst for a Hong Kong publicly listed company and has given seminars on Central Bank Digital Currencies and Blockchain in many international conferences and universities.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.