Two and a half years after declaring that Hong Kong was “over”, Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, has recently changed his tune, arguing that “the Hong Kong of old is over”. The statement itself is hardly worth disputing. The only constant in the world is change, and development — by its very nature — means that old things give way to new ones. The more important question is, What comes after the “old version” of Hong Kong? Is the city genuinely in decline, or have some people become so wedded to their own prejudices and narrow frames of reference that they can no longer understand the positive and profound transformation taking place in Hong Kong?
For decades, Hong Kong’s success was built on a relatively clear model: a free port, low taxes, an international financial center, a common law system, and a role as an intermediary between the Chinese mainland and global markets. That model worked remarkably well. But it is nature that things change, making it impossible for Hong Kong to simply freeze itself in the model of the 2000s. The real challenge for Hong Kong is not to restore an earlier version of itself, but to prove its value anew in a changing international environment.
Recent policy signals from the United States and the United Kingdom are particularly revealing. In July 2026, the US decided not to extend the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region-related national emergency measures under Executive Order 13936 after it expired on July 14. On July 9, the British government updated its “Overseas Business Risk: Hong Kong”. The document made no attempt to conceal Britain’s criticisms of Hong Kong’s political and national security framework. Yet at the same time, it offered a notably concrete assessment of Hong Kong’s commercial value. While Western political rhetoric often twists facts, profit-driven commercial decisions do not derail from data and market research.
On the one hand, Western governments continue to criticize Hong Kong’s political system and national security laws. On the other hand, when dealing with actual questions of business, investment, finance and trade, they have little choice but to acknowledge that Hong Kong still performs functions that are difficult to replace — and that they continue to seek investment opportunities in the city and to use it as a channel for trade with the mainland. As the saying goes, “Actions speak louder than words”. When political rhetoric and commercial calculations point in different directions, the more revealing signal is not the ideological language of official reports, but where capital chooses to go.
Hong Kong’s commercial value is inseparable from the support of the mainland. Across the world, major financial centers have prospered on the strength of a powerful economic hinterland. New York City has the US economy; London is anchored in the European market. Hong Kong’s hinterland is the mainland. This is a structural advantage that is difficult to replicate — yet Roach illogically treats this connection as evidence of decline.
As of Dec 19, 2025, Hong Kong’s stock market had recorded 106 new initial public offerings that year, raising a combined HK$274.6 billion ($35 billion) and putting the city back among the world’s leading IPO markets. The composition of the Hong Kong stock market has also evolved, moving beyond its traditional concentration in State-owned enterprises and banks toward hard technology, electric vehicles and biotechnology. Global institutional investors are pouring in real money based on their assessment that Hong Kong remains an investible market. HKSAR’s transformation is therefore not a shift from a “global market” to a “China market”. Rather, global investors are using Hong Kong as a channel to participate in and benefit from the mainland’s next wave of industrial growth.
If capital votes with its feet, talent does too. The recent influx of mainland professionals into Hong Kong does not mean that the city is becoming “mainlandized”. Quite the opposite: The sources of talent coming to Hong Kong are becoming more diverse. In 2025, the Top Talent Pass Scheme and the Admission Scheme for Mainland Talents and Professionals continued to attract large numbers of mainland professionals, while Hong Kong’s General Employment Policy remained open to overseas professionals.
Bloomberg has reported that thousands of foreign professionals have been drawn back to Hong Kong by its low-tax environment, career opportunities and booming IPO market. More than 31,000 foreigners applied for work visas to stay in Hong Kong last year, twice the number from five years earlier, while visas for financial-sector professionals rose 17 percent to their highest level since 2022. Hong Kong also ranked fourth globally and first in Asia in the 2025 IMD World Talent Ranking. These trends show that mainland and international talent are not mutually exclusive choices. Hong Kong is absorbing talent generated by the motherland’s economic growth while continuing to offer the institutional and market conditions that attract professionals from around the world.
In 2026, more companies from Indonesia, South Korea and Singapore are once again lining up to pursue Hong Kong listings, while international companies’ interest in the city’s capital markets was described as the strongest since 2020. This suggests that Hong Kong’s appeal has not disappeared as the number of mainland professionals has grown. Hong Kong’s distinctiveness has never been determined by the nationality of its population, but by its ability to connect the mainland with the world. The growing presence of mainland talent alongside the continued arrival of international professionals and companies is therefore not a dilution of Hong Kong’s identity. It is further strengthening the city’s role as a platform connecting the mainland and the global economy.
What ultimately matters is not whether Hong Kong can preserve the past intact, but whether it can evolve to its next version that is even harder to replace. Roach may want to still sound relevant after retirement from Morgan Stanley, so he is eager to make outrageous comments on Hong Kong every now and again despite no longer residing in Hong Kong. Nostalgia is a comfortable feeling, but avoiding change leaves people behind. Progress moves fast in modern life.
The author is a member of the Legislative Council and the UN Association of China.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
