Survey shows strong push to expand as policy signals improve

Canadian firms are moving from a "wait-and-see" approach to more active positioning in the Chinese market, business groups say, as improving sentiment and clearer policy signals encourage them to reengage and pursue new opportunities.

"For many Canadian companies, this is a constructive time to deepen or expand commercial engagement with China, provided they do so strategically and with appropriate planning and risk management," said Bijan Ahmadi, executive director and chief operating officer of the Canada China Business Council.

"There is clear positive momentum within the Canadian business community toward engagement with China," Ahmadi said.

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He cited a recent survey conducted by the council, which found that 68 percent of Canadian companies said they were preparing to expand operations in China, and 86 percent identified China as a top or No 1 priority in their global strategies.

Trade figures highlight China's continued importance. Two-way merchandise trade reached C$124 billion ($90 billion) last year, with Canadian exports to China rising 13.8 percent to C$33.5 billion, Ahmadi said, pointing at several factors driving renewed interest among Canadian firms.

"First, scale still matters. China remains one of the world's largest and most consequential markets, and Canadian firms continue to view it as strategically important," he said.

He also pointed to sector-specific opportunities. "In 2025, Canada's exports to China were increasingly driven by energy and minerals," he said, adding energy exports rose 77.8 percent to C$9.5 billion, while exports of metal ores and minerals increased 42.5 percent to C$7.91 billion.

Policy signals are also shaping business sentiment. According to the Canada China Business Council survey, 82 percent of Canadian companies believe that Prime Minister Mark Carney's current approach to China will have a positive business effect.

Political dynamics continue to influence corporate decision-making, Ahmadi said.

"Businesses are responding positively to renewed bilateral engagement. Many companies see more room for practical and commercially focused engagement than they did a few years ago," he said.

Meanwhile, United States policy shifts continue to pose risks and can have "broad macroeconomic and geoeconomic impacts" on Canadian businesses operating globally, including in China, he said.

Looking ahead, Ahmadi said he expects "pragmatic growth" in bilateral ties, "and we are already seeing signs of that momentum".

However, he said future progress will depend on several factors, including policy stability, sustained official dialogue, and developments in tariffs and market access.

"The broader geopolitical environment, particularly US-China relations, will remain a key factor."

'Good time' to enter

Zheng Xiaoling, president of the Canada International Trade Promotion Society, described the current period as "a good time for Canadian companies to enter or expand in the Chinese market".

On the one hand, China continues to offer a massive consumer market and strong momentum for industrial upgrading, Zheng said, highlighting demand in green economy, health industries and advanced manufacturing.

"On the other hand, Canadian companies have natural advantages in areas such as resources, food safety, clean energy and life sciences, which are highly complementary with the Chinese market," she said.

The improvement in bilateral ties reflects not only a warming of relations but also "a return to rationality and the rebuilding of consensus for cooperation", she said. "For companies that are well-prepared and strategically focused, the situation is shifting from a 'wait-and-see phase' to a 'positioning phase'."

Zheng said Canadian business sentiment toward China is evolving."Recently, we have clearly seen an increase in inquiries, a recovery in on-site visits and matchmaking activities, and companies with an existing presence are increasing their investment."

In agricultural products, health products and high value-added consumer goods, "some companies have already begun actively seeking partners and distribution channels", she said.

Regarding Carney's visit to China, Zheng said it sent "a very important signal — communication channels are being restored and the willingness for cooperation is increasing".

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Exchanges between officials and business groups have become more frequent, while "companies' expectations of the policy environment are becoming more stable", she said.

"Although we may not see explosive growth in the short term, the restoration of confidence itself is the most critical first step," she said.

In terms of political dynamics, she said companies "place great importance on policy stability, predictability and the sustainability of bilateral relations when making cross-border investment decisions".

Looking ahead, Zheng said she is "cautiously optimistic" about the trajectory of bilateral economic ties.

Contact the writers at gaoyang@chinadailyusa.com