Around the world, three great bay areas — Tokyo, San Francisco, and New York — have long defined the pinnacle of urban economic organization. While each has forged a distinct path to global competitiveness, a common theme is that their success does not hinge on the individual prowess of any single city but on the seamless integration of their entire ecosystems.

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area now stands at the same crossroads, competing not as a collection of cities but as a unified economic powerhouse. With the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) kicking off, coordinated regional development should logically take center stage.

In the new era of high-quality development, the true measure of an airport cluster is no longer simply how many runways it boasts but how efficiently it moves people and resources. Without fast rail links and clear functional synergy, even the most ambitious capacity expansion risks creating little more than glorified internal competition. The central challenge is clear: How to transform the Greater Bay Area’s sizable airport cluster into an integrated, efficient, and mutually reinforcing hub system. Benchmarking the world’s leading bay areas, their successful airport systems begin with deep functional complementarity, offering clear lessons for the Greater Bay Area.

The Tokyo Bay Area shows the power of policy guidance. Although different companies operate Narita and Haneda airports, the Japanese national strategy assigns each a distinct role — Narita focuses on long-haul international flights, while Haneda handles domestic and business routes. The result is a stable, durable collaboration.

The San Francisco Bay Area offers a market-driven alternative. Through healthy competition, San Francisco, Oakland, and San Jose airports have naturally evolved distinct identities — an international gateway, a domestic low-cost hub, and a node serving the tech hinterland.

The New York Bay Area, meanwhile, blends design with market forces. JFK, Newark, and LaGuardia airports sit under the same authority. Yet, they have developed clear specializations.

But here is where the Greater Bay Area can pull ahead. In these established bay areas, rail links still lumber along legacy commuter networks, struggling to deliver modern speed and seamless travel. The Greater Bay Area, by contrast, combines ambitious forward planning with increasingly distinct airport roles: Guangzhou serving Asia, Africa, and Latin America; Shenzhen connecting innovation hubs; and Hong Kong focusing on international long-haul routes.

The 15th Five-Year Plan period is the moment to turn a vision into reality. By building a “world-class airport cluster based on the rail network”, the Greater Bay Area can achieve synergies that other bay areas can only dream of.

A transformation is already underway. Guangzhou Baiyun Airport’s new Terminal 3 will host six high-speed rail lines and five intercity railways, positioning itself as the transport heart of southern China. Shenzhen Bao’an is pursuing a seamless “check-in upstairs, train-boarding downstairs” experience at its East Integrated Transport Hub.

These projects signal a new benchmark for aviation competitiveness: How fast and seamlessly an airport connects to the national high-speed rail network.

Yet one critical gap remains. While Guangzhou and Shenzhen race ahead on air-to-rail integration, connectivity between Hong Kong and Shenzhen airports still depends on ferries and roads — options that are slow and vulnerable to weather disruption. This is not just Hong Kong’s problem. It is a strategic blind spot and the missing link in the Greater Bay Area’s otherwise ambitious network.

The consequences are real. Shenzhen and the wider Chinese mainland hinterland cannot efficiently tap into Hong Kong’s international flight network. Hong Kong’s airport, in turn, cannot fully serve the national “dual circulation” strategy. If the Greater Bay Area is to compete as one against Tokyo, San Francisco, and New York, this gap must be closed.

We therefore propose establishing a Hong Kong-Shenzhen inter-airport railway and advancing it as a flagship Greater Bay Area connectivity project during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. A pragmatic solution already exists: Extend the planned Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Rail Link — scheduled for 2035 —from Qianhai to Shenzhen’s airport, and from Hung Shui Kiu to Hong Kong’s airport. Crucially, this airport spur must be developed in tandem, ready by 2035 to prevent further erosion of the Greater Bay Area’s collective connectivity.

As the 15th Five-Year Plan kicks off, this project deserves the momentum it has long awaited. The window of opportunity is open. Only with foresight and resolve can we make the leap from “the world’s factory” to “a global hub”

This link would directly plug Hong Kong into the “airport cluster on the rail network” anchored by the Second Guangzhou-Shenzhen High-Speed Rail. It would complete the loop within the Greater Bay Area’s “golden triangle” of hubs, creating a super transfer hub. With a 40-minute direct connection between Hong Kong’s international network and Shenzhen’s domestic trunk routes, the Greater Bay Area could capture high-value transfer traffic that currently leaks to Seoul and Singapore. It would also provide a resilient, all-weather alternative to ferries, safeguarding both airport operations and the region’s economic lifeline.

The rewards would be felt across three dimensions.

First, stronger supply chains: The Greater Bay Area is home to advanced manufacturing —electronics, electric vehicles, biomedicine — where time is money. A fast and reliable air-rail corridor would stitch Hong Kong’s international cargo network to the Pearl River Delta’s “world factory”. Critical components could arrive the same day; high-value products could reach global markets the next day. That is resilience where it matters most.

Second, smarter resource allocation: The link would expand Hong Kong’s economic hinterland while giving Shenzhen and the western Pearl River Delta easier access to global networks. This deeper hinterland-gateway integration would accelerate the flow of talent, technology, and capital across the region.

Third, unified global competitiveness: Once Hong Kong’s and Shenzhen’s airports are functionally integrated by rail, the airport cluster can finally practice what it preaches — differentiated development, each airport playing to its strengths, and zero-sum competition being replaced by positive-sum collaboration. To the world, the Greater Bay Area would present a compelling proposition — extensive route coverage, exceptional transfer efficiency, and seamless choice. For residents, the benefits are tangible — more flights, competitive fares, and better rail access across the region.

Every world-class bay area follows its own path. The Greater Bay Area has reached its historic moment. Functional roles are taking shape. What will determine the future is whether we build rail connectivity that goes beyond existing benchmarks.

The proposed inter-airport railway is a strategic investment. It belongs to no single city. It is a catalyst for the Greater Bay Area to integrate its strengths, leapfrog established competitors, and win the race among global bay areas.

We have the assets. We have the scale. We have the vision. What we need now is the resolve to connect them. As the 15th Five-Year Plan kicks off, this project deserves the momentum it has long awaited. The window of opportunity is open. Only with foresight and resolve can we make the leap from “the world’s factory” to “a global hub”.

Ryan Ip is vice-president and executive director of Public Policy Institute, Our Hong Kong Foundation. Jason Leung is assistant research director and head of land and housing research, Our Hong Kong Foundation. Moon Kok is a researcher at Our Hong Kong Foundation.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.