Published: 10:15, March 9, 2026 | Updated: 17:33, March 9, 2026
Shares slide, oil surges on risk of lengthy Middle East conflict
By Reuters

SYDNEY - Share markets nosedived in Asia on Monday as the inflationary jolt from surging oil prices threatened to raise living costs and interest rates across the globe, while investors desperate for liquidity fled to the US dollar.

Brent crude soared 27 percent to $117.58 a barrel, the biggest daily gain since at least 1988, which came on top of a 28 percent rise last week. US crude shot up a staggering 28 percent to $116.51, promising to push petrol prices quickly skyward.

Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father Ali Khamenei as supreme leader, signalling that hardliners remained firmly in charge in Tehran a week into its conflict with the US and Israel.

That was unlikely to be welcomed by US President Donald Trump, who had declared the son "unacceptable."

With no sign of an end to hostilities in the Middle East and tankers still not daring to cross the Strait of Hormuz, investors were bracing for a long stretch of higher energy costs. "Faced with the worst oil supply shock since the 1970s, all eyes will be on Washington's response," said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. "With no clear definition of what winning looks like, it is hard to forecast whether this will be a multi-week or multi-month conflict."

"To date, neither White House policy prescriptions nor upbeat television soundbites have alleviated acute market anxiety about the shipping standstill and cascading shut-ins across the region."

The news was sobering for Japan, a major importer of oil and gas, knocking the Nikkei down 7.0 percent on top of a 5.5 percent drop last week.

South Korea's high-flying market fell closer to Earth with a drop of 8.2 percent, having already shed more than 10 percent last week.

Central banks face inflation conundrum

The wave of market selling swept over Wall Street as S&P 500 futures shed 2.0 percent, while Nasdaq futures dived 2.3 percent. Over in Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 futures and DAX futures both slid 3.2 percent, while FTSE futures dropped 1.4 percent.

In bond markets, the risk of rising inflation outweighed safe-haven considerations to shove yields higher globally. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes rose 6 basis points to 4.204 percent, up from a trough of 3.926 percent just a week ago.

Interest rate futures slipped as investors feared the risk of higher inflation would make it harder for the Federal Reserve to ease policy, even though disappointing jobs numbers seemed to argue for stimulus.

Data on US consumer prices due on Wednesday is forecast to show the annual pace holding at 2.4 percent in February.

The Fed's preferred measure of core inflation is out on Friday and is forecast to hold at 3.0 percent, well above the central bank's 2 percent target, and analysts see a risk of an even higher number.

The danger of energy-driven inflation has led markets to wager the next move in rates from the European Central Bank could be up, possibly as early as June.

For the Bank of England, markets have shifted to pricing just a 40 percent chance of one more easing, compared with two cuts or more before the Middle East conflict started.

Nervous investors sought the liquidity of dollars while shunning currencies from countries that are net energy importers, including Japan and much of Europe.

"Asia takes the brunt of the sharp escalation in oil prices and there are few places to run and hide," said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho.

"The dollar has to be the one outperforming, given Japan and Korea's exposures here and the sharp pain that can be expected from Brent at $107."

The dollar added 0.6 percent to 158.72 yen, while the euro slipped 0.8 percent to $1.1525. The Australian dollar, often sold as a hedge during periods of market volatility, skidded 0.9 percent to $0.6964.

Gold fell 1.8 percent to $5,075 an ounce, with dealers speculating that investors were having to book profits made on the metal's long climb to cover losses elsewhere.