Virginia Lee says firms are choosing to stay in the SAR, positioning themselves for the next phase of regional opportunity through the city
Business confidence in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region is showing a pronounced recovery going into 2026, reaching a two-year high, and the significance lies less in any single percentage than in what the numbers reveal about risk judgment among senior American corporate leaders. A survey of American Chamber of Commerce member companies in Hong Kong reports that more than half of respondents (53 percent) are optimistic about the business outlook for the next 12 months, a sharp rise from the prior year. This should reassure stakeholders that decision-makers remain committed to Hong Kong as a regional business hub, fostering confidence in the city’s stability and prospects. This level of optimism is rarely sentimental. It reflects a belief that business operating assumptions can again be made with greater confidence and that Hong Kong remains capable of supporting long-horizon planning even while the external environment remains unsettled.
The improvement is supported by companies’ assessments of Hong Kong’s recent business environment. The share describing conditions as not very good or poor fell significantly, indicating a shift from frustration to a more constructive outlook. Importantly, the survey does not suggest a simplistic boom scenario. Reported revenues are mixed, consistent with ongoing global adjustments in demand, costs, and trade. This nuance enhances the credibility of the confidence rebound by showing that respondents differentiate between short-term earnings fluctuations and Hong Kong’s long-term prospect as a favorable platform for regional and global growth. In the corporate world, that distinction is critical: Profitability can vary, but predictability enables strategic commitments.
The survey methodology should be understood to interpret the results properly. The target group consists of senior representatives of AmCham member companies in Hong Kong, and the instrument is an online questionnaire designed and administered by the chamber. The survey was distributed to more than 450 corporate members across sectors. It achieved a response rate of around 25 percent, with responses mainly from business decision-makers and substantial representation from firms with very large global revenues. These features provide a strong basis for assessing sentiment among internationally connected firms that can relocate and reallocate capital. At the same time, the sample is not a random draw from the full economy, and membership-based sampling inevitably reflects the composition and priorities of chamber-affiliated companies. For that reason, the survey should be read as an authoritative indicator of outlook among a strategically important segment of the market, rather than as a census of all firms. Within that scope, the results are especially meaningful because they come from players who are typically conservative in their risk framing and who face regulatory and reputational scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions.
A particularly telling signal comes from the revealed preferences on headquarters location and investment intent. The vast majority of multinational corporations report having no plans to relocate their headquarters from Hong Kong in the next three years. That result is economically significant because headquarters decisions are anchored in legal confidence, capital mobility, banking depth, and the ability to manage compliance and governance obligations from a predictable jurisdiction. Firms may reallocate certain functions for cost or operational reasons. Still, the decision to retain a headquarters presence indicates continued reliance on Hong Kong as the command center for regional strategy. This is consistent with Hong Kong’s enduring advantages in international connectivity and the free flow of capital, which remain decisive for cross-border business even when geopolitical frictions increase transaction costs.
The survey also shows that rising confidence does not rest on denying external pressures. Respondents continue to identify tensions between the United States and China as the leading business challenge. Trade tariffs and compliance with regulatory regimes in both countries remain salient constraints. Rather than weakening the confidence story, these responses clarify its nature. Businesses are acknowledging that the world remains volatile. Still, they are increasingly signaling that Hong Kong’s internal operating environment is stable enough to manage external volatility without constant disruption to commercial life. For an international financial center, that is the core test. Markets do not require an absence of geopolitical risk. They require an institutional setting where risk can be priced, hedged, documented, and enforced.
That is why the survey carries clear implications for Hong Kong’s business prospects. High confidence in the rule of law and a perception of regulatory transparency support the foundation of business transactions: enforceable contracts, credible dispute resolution, and predictable supervisory expectations. These conditions lower friction in lending and capital markets activity, support global institutions’ willingness to book business locally, and reinforce Hong Kong’s role as a venue for cross-border transactions that require legal certainty. The survey’s findings on data freedom and confidence in continued access to global information platforms also have business relevance, because modern business depends on stable data flows for compliance, cybersecurity, market intelligence, and customer servicing. Rising optimism about Hong Kong as a regional data center and greater comfort with local data storage support the city’s capacity to retain higher-value functions in banking, asset management, and financial technology.
The expansion of business activity in the mainland side of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with many firms operating there and a significant proportion planning to expand, points to future demand for cross-border financing, professional services, and risk management. Hong Kong’s role as a connector is strengthened when regional commercial activity grows; and when firms rely on Hong Kong’s mature financial infrastructure to intermediate investment, structure deals, and provide trusted legal and compliance frameworks. This should inspire confidence in Hong Kong’s strategic importance and its ongoing relevance in regional growth, encouraging businesses to see collective progress and opportunity.
The improvement in confidence is also partly explained by the stabilizing effect of Hong Kong’s restored public order and governance environment following the introduction of the Hong Kong SAR National Security Law. The survey indicates that most respondents report no negative impact on their operations, and the share reporting adverse effects has declined. Where concerns are noted, they are described largely as indirect and perception-driven rather than as obstacles that prevent daily business activity. This should reassure stakeholders that stability is a tangible condition that reduces risks, protects infrastructure, and supports growth, fostering trust in Hong Kong’s internal environment for future investment and planning.
The central lesson of the survey is that serious market participants are increasingly evaluating Hong Kong as durable under pressure. External uncertainties remain, but the internal institutional conditions that matter to investment committees and risk officers have strengthened — public order, legal confidence, regulatory clarity, and an administrative posture that is responsive to business realities. In a period when global politics often injects noise into economic judgment, the more persuasive signal is behavioral: firms that can move are choosing, in large numbers, to stay, to maintain capital commitment, and to position themselves for the next phase of regional opportunity through Hong Kong. That is how confidence becomes a financial reality, and how Hong Kong continues to consolidate its standing as a stable and effective international business and financial center.
The author is a solicitor, a Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area lawyer, and a China-appointed attesting officer.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
