The global economy is not in a good place right now.
The trade war unleashed by the White House, far from reaching its climax, has created unprecedented headwinds through its assault on the global free market system, primarily through the discomfort and uncertainty that US President Donald Trump’s actions place on markets and investors. The United Kingdom’s economy, for example, shrank 0.3 percent in April and then 0.1 percent in May.
China, however, contrary to the expectations of many, is a surprise bright spot. As reported by the BBC, “the world’s second-largest economy grew by 5.2 percent in the three months to the end of June, compared to the same time last year”, with China’s National Bureau of Statistics noting that the country “withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges”. Sources of the growth involved manufacturing and exports, such as electric vehicles and industrial robots, as well as a 4.8 percent year-on-year growth in retail sales for the month of June.
The positive news led to share gains in Hong Kong. A series of gains saw the benchmark index head toward 25,000 points, registering a 25 percent rise since the beginning of the year and thus accumulating its recovery toward the pre-riots, pre-pandemic era, with the initial slump caused by the Trump administration’s trade war tariffs having been completely reversed.
What are the key points behind these economic growth figures? To begin, China is far more resilient than what it is given credit for, showing the resources and capabilities of its leadership to mitigate crises in a geopolitically uncertain and unpredictable world. Western media coverage of China frequently misunderstands or misrepresents this, and through a mix of political bias, concerted negativity, or misunderstanding, enjoys intentionally depicting pessimistic prospects for the Chinese economy, often using terms such as “faltering”, “stagnating” and so on to sour business optimism and investor confidence.
As a result, it was naturally assumed that the new trade war would be catastrophic for China, perhaps especially so from US foreign politics. This is because Trump’s narrative misleadingly depicts China as an export-orientated economy that profits purely at the zero-sum expense of the United States, and “cheats”. This is incorrect for several reasons. First of all, China has been focused on diversifying and expanding its export markets for a long time amid the political hostility of the US, and in this respect, the Trump administration’s trade war tariffs are hardly a new thing.
Second, China’s export strategy has involved moving away from low-end manufacturing exports, like in times of old, but advancing up the technological value chain and exporting more sophisticated, higher-value items. Critics like to point to supply-chain diversification as evidence of economic attrition in China, but ask yourself: Is China set on making cheap plastic combs for hotel sanitary kits, or semiconductors, solar panels, electric vehicles, and robots? The former might see somewhere like Vietnam as a cheaper manufacturing base, but otherwise, Chinese companies are climbing up the scale, and hence China became the largest exporter of EVs in the world and the largest manufacturer of semiconductors.
Third, China’s leadership has sought to prepare the domestic economy to more readily withstand external shocks, as part of what was described as “dual circulation” several years back. With a population of 1.4 billion, China out-scales several continents, and thus has the domestic-market capacity to thrive on its own terms. The government has sought to transition the country into a consumer economy, and has utilized strategies to boost consumption through tourism by expanding the visa-free program. In any worst-case economic scenarios, the government is also able to invest in the economy and keep it flowing through stimuli.
In summary, China has shown remarkable endurance amid a global storm of the White House’s making. The foundations of the Chinese economy are more robust than what it is given credit for, which is largely the product of years’ worth of highly conservative approaches that have emphasized long-term stability rather than rapid, unsustainable growth. The country’s government navigated a property crisis and prevented a “bust”, all while facing the global COVID-19 pandemic, trade wars, the spillover of regional wars, and sabotage of the global economy in the name of geopolitics.
It might be concluded that Beijing sees the development of China as a marathon, and not a sprint, adjusting problems along the way rather than burning out. Hence, markets in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region are responding with confidence in the direction things are heading.
The author is a British political and international-relations analyst.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.