Published: 00:00, May 16, 2025
HK should stay cautious despite de-escalation of tariff war
By Oriol Caudevilla

On Monday, China and the United States issued a joint statement on the China-US Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva, at which the two countries agreed to a temporary but significant easing of the tariffs imposed over the last few months.

For the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, this is good news, and in some ways for the whole world as well, as the trade war has been wreaking havoc globally. Stock exchanges have lost billions of dollars, causing extensive job losses and a potential global economic crisis. The US tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, harmed businesses on both sides of the Pacific, and introduced uncertainty into markets. New tariffs and a second round of trade wars have added to the uncertainty in the world economy — which is anathema to all businesspeople and investors alike.

Global investors were pleased with this news: Dow futures jumped more than 2 percent on Monday, while S&P 500 futures rose nearly 3 percent during afternoon trading in Asia. Asian markets were higher too, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index ending about 3 percent higher.

This truce should not be underestimated; it reflects a shared understanding that the trade war is inflicting real damage on both sides. For businesses and consumers already reeling from rising costs and supply disruptions, the 90-day window offers temporary relief.

The 90-day pause on additional US tariffs on Chinese imports brings guarded and welcome hope to Hong Kong, a city whose economy is inextricably tied to international trade and the Chinese mainland’s supply chains. As a principal reexport hub and financial crossroads between East and West, Hong Kong has been more severely affected than most by US-China trade tensions.

Investor sentiment has improved with the temporary suspension of escalation. Shipping, warehousing, and professional services industries may also see a modest recovery in the coming weeks.

The ceasefire provides Hong Kong’s trade and logistics sectors with short-term relief, following a year in which volumes have declined and margins have narrowed. Exporters and reexporters, who serve as intermediaries for Chinese goods bound for overseas markets, will benefit from a short stabilization of trade flows.

Moreover, this pause — however brief — also gives Hong Kong an opportunity to capitalize on its strengths. Hong Kong’s rule of law, open regulatory regime, and deep pool of international talent continue to make the city a desirable platform for global business. The break in trade tensions should be used to reengage with the world, ease trade, and increase Hong Kong’s competitiveness in areas such as dispute resolution, trade finance, and digital logistics.

But the trade war is not over. As a matter of fact, if one thing characterizes US President Donald Trump’s administration, it is its unpredictability.

Hong Kong must continue to be a stabilizing force and a level playing field in an increasingly polarized world economy. Our international business advantage lies in our ability to remain above the fray — to offer consistency, clarity, and confidence while others may stumble.

While Hong Kong will continue to be one of the world’s most important financial centers, its economy is not immune to the uncertainties caused by the trade war. This explains why Hong Kong must double down on its traditional strengths, such as finance, logistics, and professional services, by embracing technological innovation and ensuring regulatory clarity, to navigate the trade war smoothly and emerge stronger. The financial sector can cement its position as a global hub by expanding into areas like sustainable finance, wealth management, and digital asset platforms. These initiatives will ensure that its offerings remain at the cutting edge. Professional services, particularly legal and arbitration expertise, should capitalize on the city’s status as a gateway between East and West, while adapting to the needs of emerging markets.

We must always bear in mind that Hong Kong is one of the world’s most important financial centers. The city is seizing opportunities from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. By proactively aligning with the country, the HKSAR is unleashing its potential to enhance its role as a superconnector. Furthermore, the Connect Schemes, the city’s anticipated entry into the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and its increasing business coordination with the Middle East — thanks to Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu’s forward-looking missions to the region — will bolster the city’s capacity to navigate future uncertainties.

To sum up, while the pause on the tariffs is good news for the whole world, and particularly for Hong Kong, for obvious reasons, we cannot forget that it is only a 90-day pause and we cannot predict what will happen afterward. Nevertheless, Hong Kong is well-positioned to capitalize on its current strengths and navigate the trade war, just as it did in 2018. Hong Kong will remain one of the world’s most important financial centers and will continue to enhance its status.

The author is a fintech adviser, researcher, and former business analyst for a Hong Kong listed company.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.