Apple Inc will retake its crown as the world’s largest smartphone maker for the first time in more than a decade, lifted by the successful debut of a new iPhone series and a rush of consumers upgrading devices, according to Counterpoint Research.
The iPhone 17 models introduced in September have been a hit both domestically in the US and in Apple’s other critical market, China. They’ve enticed more people to upgrade, leading to double-digit year-over-year sales growth in both markets, according to the researchers. The US company also is benefiting from a cooling of US-China trade tensions and a depreciating dollar that has boosted purchases in emerging markets, they added.
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The growth will propel Apple past longtime rival Samsung Electronics Co this year, according to Counterpoint’s figures. Shipments of the iPhone are set to grow at 10 percent in 2025, compared with 4.6 percent for Samsung.
The overall smartphone market is expected to expand by 3.3 percent in 2025, with Apple projected to claim a share of 19.4 percent. It will be the first time since 2011 that the company takes the No 1 position.
“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point,” said Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang. “Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years.”
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Looking further into the future, Wang sees Apple extending its lead. The upcoming 2026 debut of a foldable iPhone and a budget-friendly iPhone 17e will both help sales. And Apple is expected to follow those models with a major iPhone design revamp in 2027, as Bloomberg News has previously reported.
With those tailwinds, Counterpoint expects Apple to remain the No 1 phone seller through 2029.
Apple said last month that sales are growing faster than anticipated, with the holiday quarter poised to approach a record $140 billion in revenue.
