Professor Lau Siu-kai, consultant and former Vice-President of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies, is on Straight Talk this week.
He explains to us and analyzes last week's military parade in Beijing to mark the 80th Anniversary of the Victory, and how it is more than just a display of our nation’s strength, it was a tribute to history, reflecting on the past while signaling our ambitions for the future in an evolving world.
Check out the full transcript of TVB’s Straight Talk host Dr Eugene Chan’s interview with Prof Lau Siu-kai:
Chan: Good evening! I'm Eugene Chan, and welcome to Straight Talk. Joining us is Prof Lau Siu-kai, Emeritus Professor of Sociology at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and former head of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government’s Central Policy Unit.
Professor Lau is currently a consultant and former vice president of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies, and in 2024, was awarded the Grand Bauhinia Medal for his contributions to Hong Kong over the last 30 years. He has also been a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference from 2003 to 2018, and is a leading voice on Hong Kong's political development and China's role in the world with many publications in these areas. Welcome, Professor Lau!
Lau: Hi!
History
Chan: Kai Suk, as we like to call you, we know last Wednesday, on Sept 3, we had a massive military parade in Beijing to mark the 80th Anniversary of the Victory in the Second Sino-Japanese War and World War II. We had over 12,000 troops on display, and the event was set to be a commemoration of history and a showcase of China's strength today. It received wide coverage in Hong Kong, but in other parts of the world, the reactions were more mixed. So, tonight, we would like to explore with you what the parade really means and what it is saying to the world.
Lau: This is the fifth time I have attended the parade.
Chan: Right.
Lau: I must say that, historically speaking, this is the most significant one.
Chan: Right.
Lau: Because China shows itself to be a military superpower. And before, China used to hide its political strength, military strength. But now, in order to prevent the US and other countries from misjudging China's military prowess, Beijing deliberately tries to show the world that China has advanced high-tech military power. Behind it, China is also possessed the man of industrial production power, as well as a great economic power. And you can see from the scene, the Chinese people are very united, highly mobilized to attend these parades. I think, even though the Western media have not paid too much attention to the parade, people in the know in the West must be shocked and very much impressed by the progress China has made in the last 10 years in terms of military power and military technology.
Chan: Right. So Professor Lau, as you mentioned, I mean, as for those who have watched on the television, we know that all the other soldiers, or even who have participated, even volunteers, they were in a very strict order, and they are very, I would say, so-called robot, they're like very well trained. One of our members of the CPPCC, Kenneth Lam, said that the parade reflected both the discipline of the participants and the strength of the Chinese army. So, how does China do this? And what is that trying to tell the people of the world?
Lau: Well, of course, it shows that China is a very disciplined and organized society these days. And I understand that the soldiers and the military have been trained for many months before they were ready to go to the parade. So, I don't think any other country can have that kind of parade in scale and in form as compared with China. So, it is a very much accelerated experience.
Chan: Right. Yes, Prof Lau, one comment that Kenneth made was confident yet humble, and committed to national rejuvenation and peace. We often hear of the word rejuvenation. What does that mean?
Lau: Well, it means that the whole Chinese nation will get rejuvenated in the next maybe 10 or 20 years to show that China will become a major power in the world, which will mean China will become a force of peace, as well as a force for certain warfare, a fairer and more reasonable and inclusive, world order. So, from the Chinese point of view, the rejuvenation of Chinese nation is not just a matter for the Chinese. Of course, Chinese will fare well to the century-long ammunition in China's modern history. But it also means that China will become a great force in the world, for intention of wellbeing and for the wellbeing of humanity.
Chan: Right, Kai Suk. It's interesting that this, I mean, we place such importance on commemorating this event, which happened 80 years ago. Why do we have to place so much importance on an event that happened such a long time ago?
Lau: Well, the reason is very simple: now China find itself in a very complicated and threatening international situation. Well, in the last 10 years or so, you can see that the United States and its allies tried to contain China militarily, economically, technologically, and in terms of trade. In order to prevent the West, the United States from misjudging China's power and go into unnecessary and disastrous adventures or ventures against China, China had to demonstrate to the world, to the States and its allies that China is powerful enough to withstand and to counter containment by the US.
Chan: Right.
Lau: Now you can see the so-called first island chain or even the second island chain are rather useless to run up China naval power within a really small area. And it shows that Chinese power is now quite strong in the Western Pacific. So, the purpose of the parade to show off the muscle, the military muscle of China is to prevent misjudgment by the West and to avoid any war between the China and the West, particularly with the United States.
Symbolism and message
Chan: Right. Kai Suk, you look at the images of the actual event, we saw the flags, you hear the music, and I said earlier, the orderly formations, which honored the past and looked to the future. Do you see it just as a symbolic sort of display, or this is a part of the real nation building strategy?
Lau: Well, it is not symbolic. Basically, China showed the world what is the war of the future. War with high-tech artificial intelligence, information, precision, etc., will play important roles. So, China shows the world that China is leading the world in terms of its ability to undertake a war of the future.
Chan: I see.
Lau: And that is important. The war, as we understand, in the past is no longer the war which we are going to see in the future.
Chan: Right. And also, I think the parade also emphasized the Communist Party as the backbone of resistance for the whole nation. So, how does this fit into the narrative about the leadership and legitimacy?
Lau: Well, from China's point of view, it is the strong leadership of the Chinese Communist Party that is going to lead China into rejuvenation, and to build China into a powerful and rich country. That's why in the Chinese system, the People's Liberation Army is under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and is loyal to that Party. So, when you talk about the military parade, you also celebrate the contribution of Chinese Communist Party to China's development and to China's power and influence.
Chan: Just now we mentioned about 12,000 troops already there, and there are a lot of new high-tech equipment, such as laser weapons, all these nuclear ballistic missiles, and also sort of drones that are underwater and also unmanned tanks and all that, I mean, things we have not seen before.
Lau: Yes, unmanned tanks.
Chan: So, what is that message intended for the people of Hong Kong? What is that telling us?
Lau: Well, from the point of view of people of Hong Kong, they must have a great sense of national pride, and a great sense of security, and in the sense that they will not be afraid or fearful of any military threat from other countries. And that means many people would be confident that China is able to protect them against any invasion or any military incursion.
Chan: Could there be other additional weapons that haven't been displayed? Just for curiosity.
Lau: It must be. Because we are talking about the ... China has demonstrated the prototype of the sixth generation fighter. And that has not been shown in the parade. Because what were shown in the parade are those weaponry and way of fighting which are now reused. I mean, of course, China must be doing some research on the next generation weaponry. But even with these present future generation, I mean in many areas, China is already the leading force. But then they say the supersonic missiles.
Chan: Right, Kai Suk, will you see these events will show China wants to what we call, or seen as, a more confident world power rather than a historical victim?
Lau: Well, I would say that these are the two sides the same coin because on one hand, China has to demonstrate to the Chinese people that China is now a military superpower, while at same time, China is to remind the people of China that we have more than a century of national humiliation. That would be a major force, motivating force, to urge the Chinese people to continue to do work hard, to make sure that China is safe, prosperous, and secure.
Chan: Right, okay. Professor, time for a quick break now and we will be back with more Straight Talk.
Chan: Thank you for staying with us. We have been talking with Prof Lau Siu-kai, distinguished scholar of Hong Kong politics and China's international role, about the recent 80th Anniversary Military Parade, and what it is saying to the world.
Global reactions
Chan: So, professor, in the first half, you said the clear message that it wanted to show the people of the world and Hong Kong that we are no longer a sort of … not just a strong country, but a strong country with military power, and peacefulness is what we're looking for, but remembering the humiliation that we had over the past century. So, do you think the world has received this message that we hope to send, or do you think it has been seen in another way?
Lau: Well, the most important thing is the world’s political elites and military elites should recognize what happens afterwards. That means I will say that most of them at least recognize China as a military superpower. And that is important, because that would mean that the balance of power in the world, particularly in the Western Pacific, will change tremendously. And that means to contain China rhetorically is no longer possible. And particularly, it will change the vision or the perception of the US towards China. And I would say that even though some American experts, I would say, say that China lacks practical military combat experience. But I can also see that even the US does not have any practical military experience with another great power.
Chan: Right.
Lau: The US has always been trying to subdue other minor nations with its force.
Chan: So-called proxy war, isn't it?
Lau: Or conducting proxy wars. So, the changing balance of power between the US and China would mean that the US would not dare to challenge China militarily. Most important fact is that even the US allies would have to rethink whether US security guarantees are still reliable.
Chan: Kai Suk, you know, some media reactions were mixed. I was sort of watching television, President Donald Trump actually accused President Xi Jinping of conspiring with Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The actual words he said was: “Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong-un, as you conspire against the United States of America”. Do you think this is … he was serious or he was just making political rhetoric?
Lau: Well, sometimes I'm not sure whether I can believe the words of Donald Trump.
Chan: Right.
Lau: But that must be some kind of sour grapes when Trump did that because Trump has been trying to secure some kind of dialogue with Putin, and Mr Kim of the DPRK, and he tried to solve problem in an bilateral sense, tried to isolate China in the process. But I think the fact that this three personalities – Mr Xi, Mr Putin and Mr Kim – to come together and form some kind of coalition, must be very hurting for Donald Trump.
Chan: Right. I was just going to ask you, because I think one photo caught global attention, which showed President Xi standing in between President Putin and Kim Jong-un. This must be the first time they stood together, and, as you know, in the political world, there's always a reason why they show such photograph. So, what message do you think this image will send to not only the US, but the rest of the world?
Lau: Well, I’d say there are two major messages. One is that the three countries will work together to counter any possible Western threats. The other thing is that they tell Donald Trump that he has no way to divide them.
Chan: I see.
Lau: And that is a very strong message and particularly when Trump is talking about isolation, this kind of foreign policy.
Chan: Would you say that this is sort of a challenge to the US-led world order for quite some time?
Lau: Well, I'm not sure that … what the US will do in the near future. But at least for the time being, the US is going to face a very powerful coalition, about these three countries.
Chan: And actually, if we look at, if we sort of pan towards the other side, look at Europe, only EU leader, Sovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico, attended the parade. What does that tell us about Europe's position? Only one country out of so many?
Lau: Well I think Europe is still very divided vis-a-vis China. But this parade will show Europe that the US also is not a reliable partner when it comes to China. In the case of the NATO, I think Trump has always been saying that he might leave NATO. And now he's talking about reputing to solve the so-called Ukraine problem in the bilateral manner, leading many Western European countries, very angry and very worried. So, the rise of China in the military sense, will also loosen the military ties between Europe and the US. Previously, they even talked about expanding the NATO into Asia, into the Asia-Pacific, to counter China. But now, this must be a pipedream after the show of force by China.
Chan: Professor, if that's the case, why wasn't there even a bigger turnout from the global leaders? Because I've done some counting. Out of the 196 nations in the world, there were 26 who turned out, and not one from the so called 47 developed economies, according to the United Nations turnout. There are claims that Japan urged other countries not to come. Do you think that was effective?
Lau: No. Many countries sent representatives even though they might not have sent the heads of the state. Of course, the absences are leaders from the US and the NATO. It’s very simple. In the first place, I don't think the West likes to see China rising as a superpower. The other is simple because Putin is there.
Chan: I see.
Lau: And the Western European leaders will not want to stand together with Putin. At the same time, many Western countries have grudges against China, saying that China is supporting Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian war. So, basically I expect them not to come because the new internal situation is such that they don't want to do anything to enhance China’s prestige to be sleighed a little bit by Beijing because Beijing is going to give a lot of limelight to Putin.
Chan: So, Kai Suk, our national officials have always talked about our nation's commitment to peace and international cooperation. However, with such a big military parade, does it convey a message of peace? I'm sure they could say that it comes across as contradictory. How do you rebut that?
Lau: Well, from China's historic experience, China’s humiliation in the past is the result of Chinese military weakness. And so the message from China is that China needs to have a strong military in order to secure itself against any possibility of humiliation in the days ahead. And from China’s historic experience, peace can only be achieved with strength, particularly military strength. What China is telling the world is China is about peace because of our historic experience, we want peace. But at the same time we also understand in order to secure peace China needs to be strong internally. Otherwise, this is no possibility of peace.
Chan: Right. So far, we've only been talking about the US views. How about views of, like Japan or other neighboring Asian countries?
Lau: Well, I would say that Japan is particularly sensitive to what happened in China. And, particularly, in the last couple of months, there's a lot of anti-Japanese sentiments among the Chinese people. And as long as Japan does not make a serious apology to the Chinese people, the Chinese people still think that Japan is still seeing the Second World War in a different way, from the point of view of how the Chinese people are seeing it. And they still … Chinese people are still worried that Japan militarism will revive and become a threat to China.
Chan: Right. We also read that President Trump called for the Defense Department to rename as Department of War. Did this parade trigger that, and does that signal we have to be prepared for conflict?
Lau: Well, from my point of view, this change of name is not too serious. But what we are seeing now is that in these years, the US always try to use force to solve problems and believe the importance of hard power much more than soft power. So, the change of name might tell other people that US is even more prepared to use force to solve problems, rather than diplomacy. And that may lead a lot of people to worry about the future stance of the US. But from China's point of view, China is so powerful now, I don't think China will really worry about any military attack from the US.
Chan: Right. Thank you, Professor Lau, for helping us unpack the significance of the Sept 3 parade. This parade was more than just a display of our nation's strength. It was a tribute to history, reflecting on the past, while signaling a vision for the future in the evolving world.
Thank you for joining us on Straight Talk, and have a good evening.
