SYDNEY - Share markets edged higher in Asia on Monday ahead of what is likely to be an eventful week for US interest rate policy, with oil prices slipping.
The major economic event of the week will be the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Aug 21-23 Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak on the economic outlook and the central bank's policy framework.
"Chair Powell will likely signal that risks to the employment and inflation mandates are coming into balance, setting up the Fed to resume returning policy rate to neutral," said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief economist at Citi Research.
"But Powell will stop short of explicitly signalling a September rate cut, awaiting the August jobs and inflation reports," he added. "This would be fairly neutral for markets already fully pricing a September cut."
Markets imply around an 85 percent chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's meeting on Sept 17, and are priced for a further easing by December.
The prospect of lower borrowing costs globally have underpinned stock markets and Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.5 percent to a fresh record high.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was a fraction lower, having hit a four-year top last week.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.3 percent, while FTSE futures and DAX futures gained 0.2 percent.
Solid earnings
S&P 500 futures nudged up 0.1 percent, while Nasdaq futures added 0.2 percent with both near all-time highs.
Valuations have been underpinned by a solid earnings season as S&P 500 EPS grew 11 percent on the year and 58 percent of companies raised their full-year guidance.
"Earnings results have continued to be exceptional for the mega-cap tech companies," noted analysts at Goldman Sachs. "While Nvidia has yet to report, the Magnificent 7 apparently grew EPS by 26 percent year/year in 2Q, a 12 percent beat relative to consensus expectation coming into earnings season."
This week's results will provide some color on the health of consumer spending with Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart all reporting.
In bond markets, the chance of Fed easing is keeping down short term Treasury yields while the longer end is pressured by the risk of stagflation and giant budget deficits, leading to the steepest yield curve since 2021.
European bonds also have been pressured by the prospect of increased borrowing to fund defence spending, pushing German long-term yields to 14-year highs.
Wagers on more Fed easing has weighed on the dollar, which dropped 0.4 percent against a basket of currencies last week to last stand at 97.851 .
The dollar was a fraction firmer on the yen at 147.33 , while the euro held at $1.1704 after adding 0.5 percent last week.
The dollar has fared better against its New Zealand counterpart as the country's central bank is widely expected to cut rates to 3.0 percent on Wednesday.
In commodity markets, gold was stuck at $3,328 an ounce after losing 1.9 percent last week.
Brent dropped 0.4 percent to $65.61 a barrel, while US crude eased 0.2 percent to $62.67 per barrel.