China’s homegrown C919 civilian passenger jet and its older, smaller, twin-jet engine cousin, the ARJ21, made their first visits to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region recently. The occasion included a planned publicity flight over our majestic city and iconic harbor as well as both aircraft being available for inspection on the tarmac at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA). A welcome sight, but why were they here? HKIA was recently voted as “Asia’s Leading Airport 2023” after the same accolade was given in 2020 and 2021 and was also “China’s Leading Airport 2023”, so perhaps this played a part in the sojourn. 

Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu has lauded the visit and what it represented for Chinese commercial aviation. Both aircrafts will feature prominently in the domestic market but seek wider exposure and customers further afield. Hong Kong is a major transport hub for both passengers and freight, but the aircraft types themselves are a key factor. It’s a tough market, with established companies with deep pockets currently ruling the skies. It is not quite a duopoly, but comes close. 

Indeed, the mid- to wide-body and long-distance passenger and freight markets are currently dominated by the American Boeing Company and the European Airbus consortium. Only minimal parts are played by COMAC (China), Bombardier (Canada) and Embraer (Brazil) rounded out by the Irkut Corporation in Russia…. However, this, I believe, is likely to change, at least for single-aisle aircraft with a range of up to 5,000 kilometers. 

Of the smaller players, I believe COMAC has the potential to compete in this zone. Not just against Bombardier, which now specializes in smaller jets for the private business market as they once had the 100-seat CS100 passenger jet that failed to take off– illustrating the difficulties of new entries into the larger commercial passenger market – and Embraer with its E series of jets, but also against aircraft like the Boeing 737 and Airbus A220 and A320 series. 

The ARJ21 and its variants could pitch such a case at the smaller end, and it was pushed out to the international market only in 2022, though beginning domestic operations on the Chinese mainland in 2016. External success will likely depend not just on price but fuel efficiency, technical support and service needs, maintenance costs, reliability, and durability – especially for the engines currently made by General Electric from the US. International FAA certification issues have hampered deployment until now.

READ MORE: Planes’ first trip to Hong Kong ignites city’s aviation industry 

A decent, existing domestic customer base among more than a dozen Chinese commercial passenger companies and a track record of thousands of trouble-free flights underpins the operation and model confidence in the future. Indeed, China, Europe, and North America are the world’s top three passenger travel markets. It is predicted that China will account for about 20 percent of global aircraftdemand by 2042. Chinese commercial passenger companies are expected to order more than 8,500 new jets by 2042. Most orders will be for aircraft types with single aisles, such as the ARJ121 and larger C919. Expansion to Southeast Asia is a plausible target, with TransNusa Airlines of Indonesia being the first serious international operator of the AJ21 aircraft, so things look to be picking up.

In the medium term, many companies seek sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) from renewable materials of biological waste to improve their green credentials

Furthermore, besides having a home-grown commercial jetliner capacity with the AJ21, the newer C919 is the new kid on the block. It can accommodate from 158 to 192 passengers with a range of 4,075 to 5,555 kilometers, hence neatly able to cover the whole of China. As such, this is now realistic home-grown competition for Boeing and Airbus, at least in this passenger range sweet spot. China has also developed its high-performance jet engine through the Aero Engine Corporation of China in Shanghai, removing dependence on Western-supplied engines. This is a crucial development. 

Looking to the future, I believe, like in so many areas, that China can innovate and perform at the highest aviation technology levels, as it has already demonstrated in the space sector. This is to provide domestic travel capacity, national jet travel security, and next-level offerings. The industry desperately needs this for future aviation viability in a net zero-carbon future. 

According to the International Energy Agency, the global aviation industry accounted for about 2 percent of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2022. Hydrogen or electric-powered aircraft may still be several decades away, especially for anything other than short-haul destinations. In the medium term, many companies seek sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) from renewable materials of biological waste to improve their green credentials. This is a bit of a climate chimera as the emissions from burning these SAFs are still an issue while the base product is more expensive. Furthermore, the volumes of SAF available will likely remain modest for the foreseeable future and do not offer a sector-wide solution.

READ MORE: Water salute greets C919, ARJ21 arrival in Hong Kong 

It’s all just existing technology. A step-change is needed for aircraft that run on hydrogen or electricity from superefficient, lightweight batteries powered by renewables for effectively zero carbon footprint. Such aircraft already exist, with many more in prototype form, but they are small and of limited range. If China could step up to the plate here and make breakthroughs that make large hydrogen-electric planes viable, that would put the cat among the pigeons. 

The author is a professor in the Faculty of Science at the University of Hong Kong, the director of its Laboratory for Space Research, and vice-chairman of the Orion Astropreneur Space Academy.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.